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Azour on the left; Franjieh on the right. Image from LBCgroup.TV

Presidential Election in Neighboring Lebanon; IMF Candidate vs Hezbollah Ally

by YaLiban, published June 7, 2023

This is interesting.  Though I disagree with the analyst’s perspective, the article lays out exactly the imperialist context that keeps Lebanon from having a functioning government, and from any kind of viable independence.   Aside from the factional infighting, notice the credentials cited for the 2 contenders for the presidency.  One candidate has (only) strong regional alliances; the other is a technocrat and previous finance minister, who currently oversees the region for the IMF.  The latter has a ‘plan’, presumably to assist Lebanon in implementing the reforms (read: ‘austerity’ or more precisely, ‘getting blood from a stone’ ) needed to obtain assistance from the IMF, while the former will work with regional forces to find resources to invest in the Lebanese economy. This is a vivid example of the unending cycle of ‘damned if you do’ and ‘damned if you don’t’ that keeps developing nations from developing economic stability.  [jb]

Almost all the opposition political blocs and FPM announced they will vote in the upcoming presidential election for former minister Jihad Azour and all are waiting for the position of former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt .

In an interview published in Kuwait’s al-Qabas newspaper last March 17 Jumblatt proposed the names of Lebanese lawyer Chibli Mallat, and Azour.

Jumblatt branded both Marada movement leader Suleiman Franjieh and MP Michel Mouawad as confrontational.

Can Lebanese parties continue with their confrontational approach when there is a political climate of consensus in the region,” Jumblatt wondered, in reference to the recent improvement in Iran Saudi ties

There is a regional dialogue that is bigger than (Parliament Speaker Nabih) Berri and myself, shouldn’t we benefit from it,” Jumblatt asked, who is closely associated with Berri.

Jihad Azour is currently the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund where he oversees the Fund’s work in the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia and Caucasus.

Azour served as Lebanon’s Finance Minister in 2005-08, during which time he coordinated the implementation of important reforms, including modernizing the country’s tax and customs systems. Before and since his time as finance minister, he held a wide range of executive positions in the private sector, including McKinsey and Booz and Co. where he was a Vice-President and Senior Executive Advisor.

The Lebanese economy remains severely depressed against continued deadlock over much needed economic reforms and high uncertainty. Despite the urgency for action to address Lebanon’s deep economic and social crisis, progress in implementing the reforms agreed under the 2022 agreement with IMF remains very slow.

Azour is being seen by the majority of the Lebanese as the most qualified consensual candidate to be Lebanon’s new president at this particular period because of his financial expertise

Suleiman Franjieh, a key ally of Hezbollah and a close friend of Syrian president Bashar al Assad is the candidate of Hezbollah and its ally Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement ( the so called Shiite Duo)

MP Michel Mouawad, president of the Independence Movement, who was the candidate of the opposition pulled out of the race and endorsed Azour.

At least 65 votes are needed to elect a president and a quorum of 86 MPS needed to conduct the election . The Lebanese parliament is made up of 128 MPS

Speaker Berri has been counting on Jumblatt’s parliamentary bloc to vote for Franjieh , but according to sources closely associated with him Jumblatt has other plans in his mind and this time around it is his son that makes the decision

Jumblatt’s priority after resigning as the PSP leader is above all to anchor the leadership of his son, Taymour, who has taken over the Druze leader’s parliamentary seat and pretty soon he will take over the leadership of PSP

Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun’s term expired last October

Franjieh’s only strength is his relations with Hezbollah and Syrian president Bashar al Assad .

He lacks all the qualifications needed to rescue Lebanon , while Azour reportedly has a rescue plan that will be approved by all

The parliament will meet on June 14th to elect a president after 11 sessions of failed attempts

Will we remain stubborn in the time of dialogue, normalization and the resumption of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran,” Jumblatt said, as he reiterated his call for consensus.

The question is : Will Jumblatt deliver what he promised ?

Analysts say Jumblatt’s son Taymour will deliver what his dad promised , after all he is the leader of his parliamentary bloc and knows well that all his MPs want Azour for president .

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