‘The Era of International Mediation is Over’ — Israel & US attempt to Impose a New ‘Reality’ on Gaza, Syria & Lebanon

CONSEQUENTIAL OBSERVATIONS & STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS

Washington overrides Israel-Hizbullah Ceasefire Agreement, UN Resolution 1701 & UNIFIL peacekeeping forces; Orders Lebanon to submit to Israel’s demands (Ibrahim Al-Amine, Al-Akhbar):

The new message from Washington is clear: the era of multilateral mediation is over. The US now envisions direct or indirect political negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, under exclusive US management and without UN involvement … In the US and Israeli view, eight months of stalemate have proven that Israeli military strikes are ineffective and that only financial and security pressure can yield results … US, European, and Arab intelligence circles are now circulating an identical narrative to Israel’s: that Hezbollah is rebuilding and reorganizing its military and civil structures across Lebanon, with tacit leniency from the [Lebanese] army … The prevailing view is that military operations alone cannot contain Hezbollah, and that alternative tools are needed, notably intensified financial strangulation and tighter monitoring of alleged funding networks. US officials have already begun coordinating with Gulf partners to escalate these measures… Behind the scenes, Riyadh and Washington are coordinating ahead of Lebanon’s May parliamentary elections, drafting a plan that forbids alliances with Hezbollah or its allies and funnels support to any faction running against them. The target: a parliamentary bloc of 86 seats, breaking the Shiite hold and consolidating a pro-US–Saudi majority … Security developments suggest Israel is preparing new forms of covert warfare … According to informed sources, Israel’s demands from Lebanon mirror those made to Damascus: a public and complete disarmament of Hezbollah, the establishment of a demilitarized zone south of the Awali River, and the exclusion of UN supervision, effectively turning Lebanon’s south into a security belt under Israeli control.

Israeli concern over Hezbollah’s resilience is mounting (Ibrahim Al-Amine, Al-Akhbar):

Washington is leading a campaign to choke off every possible flow of funds to Hezbollah by targeting money transfer networks and curbing expatriate remittances … a full-scale security operation extends into Beirut’s airport, port, and border crossings, where Western intelligence units have expanded their presence. The UAE, fully aligned with the US approach, has adopted parallel steps.

Israeli concern over Hezbollah’s resilience is mounting … Israeli media outlets describe the northern front as “highly sensitive”. Despite heavy losses, Hezbollah continues to rebuild its strength, recover weapons from damaged depots, and reinforce its offensive and defensive capacities. Some of the recovered arms, according to Israeli assessments, could shift the balance of power in future confrontations … The key question remains: when and how will Hezbollah prepare the next challenge?

Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament, Berri: No further negotiations with Israel; We remain committed to the Ceasefire Agreement:

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri told Asharq al-Awsat that US Envoy Barrack informed Lebanon that Israel had rejected an American proposal aimed at launching a negotiation process that would begin with a two-month halt to Israeli operations and conclude with a withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territories and the start of border demarcation talks and security arrangements. In response, Berri said: “All paths for negotiations with Israel have been abandoned, and what remains is the mechanism through the committee supervising the implementation of the ceasefire agreement”. Berri stressed: “We remain committed to the ceasefire agreement reached in November 2024, which the mechanism committee is supposed to oversee. Berri stated that this mechanism is “the only framework currently in place, and nothing else”.

The Gaza model for Lebanon? (Al-Akhbar):

The American team in Lebanon began promoting the idea that the Gaza model could be repeated in Lebanon if the state fails to implement what is required of it … [Recent Israeli attacks have been] interpreted as a message that Israel is prepared to resume the war on Lebanon … with the aim of transforming the south of the Litani River into a buffer zone. Officials in the government are reported to be concerned that the coming days will be very difficult, if not militarily, then politically … Informed sources reported recently that American officials were quoted as saying, “Washington has begun considering the day after [for] southern Lebanon … There are options under consideration, including the possibility of handing over the south to an international force, especially after UNIFIL leaves. These forces could be American until the outstanding issues, particularly the land demarcation issue, are resolved”. The Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth published a report stating, “We must turn our attention to the north … The policy is no longer to mow the grass… or attempt to prevent escalation. The new reality we clearly see beyond the fence is the imposition of a firm, daily, and uncompromising security reality. Hezbollah’s attempts to [reorganise] are met with an offensive response. The IDF is … uprooting all the roots of terrorism. This model is proving its effectiveness, and it must be the only reality we strive for. We are now adopting it in the south, vis-à-vis Gaza.”

Hamas’ Strategic Transformation (independent Al-Khaleej Online):

A year after the Israeli occupation authorities assassinated Sinwar, the Palestinian resistance has witnessed a series of developments and achievements that demonstrate Hamas’ continued influence despite the genocidal war and assassination of many of its political and military leaders … The movement has succeeded in quickly reorganizing its field leadership to fill the void … A more disciplined and coordinated collective leadership has emerged, along with the development of its military capabilities. Hamas has continued to produce missiles and drones domestically despite the blockade and has carried out high-profile attacks … Popular and political support for the movement has also increased inside and outside Palestine, particularly in the Arab and Islamic worlds … Hamas continues to adhere to its resistance path despite political pressure [and has] affirmed that “the flame of the flood will not fade, and the blood of the martyred leaders strengthens the path of resistance for generations” … Sinwar’s assassination did not lead to the collapse of the leadership — Hamas maintained a clear leadership and an effective decision-making center, thanks to collective leadership within Gaza and abroad, reflecting the movement’s ability to distribute tasks and reduce reliance on a single figure.

‘Trump to His Arab Monarchs: Wipe up Israel’s Mess’ (Al-Akhbar):

Trump’s recent appearances at the Knesset and in Sharm al-Sheikh left little doubt about how he envisions the post-Gaza war Middle East. Speaking before the Israeli Knesset, he declared that the Arab and Islamic states supporting his ceasefire plan could not have done so without what he called “the weakening of Iran and the destruction of Hezbollah and Hamas through US and Israeli power”. In other words, their compliance depended on US and Israeli domination. He openly credited them for pressuring Hamas to release Israeli captives, the role he assigned them from the start … Trump presented the war as a joint US-Israeli victory … His trip to Sharm el-Sheikh was not about peace but about binding the attending Arab states to the next phase of his plan: disarming the resistance forces that Israel failed to defeat in the battle, while dressing this submission as diplomacy. In exchange, he offered guarantees of halting Israeli aggression to spare Washington’s Arab allies further embarrassment.

CENTCOM Commander Cooper’s Demands of Al-Sharaa — including a US military/intel base in Damascus (Firas al-Shoufi, Al-Akhbar):

Cooper conveyed a message [to Al-Sharaa] from SDF commander Mazloum Abdi emphasizing that any integration of the SDF into the new army must be carried out as a single unit within a highly decentralized structure … Abdi’s message underscores a firm rejection of Turkish–backed solutions supported by al-Sharaa, which would dissolve the SDF and dismantle its leadership within the new army. The US is increasingly inclined to support the SDF’s demands for a decentralized or federal system … Another key demand from Cooper was that Syria officially join the international coalition against ISIS, a step al-Sharaa has so far openly avoided. Al-Sharaa now faces a major challenge in confronting ISIS, which continues to exploit security vacuums and embed itself among government forces … ISIS fighters have joined extremists within [Al-Sharaa’s] troops and allied tribes in documented crimes across Sweida and the coast. Such clashes risk giving ISIS more influence inside [Al-Sharaa’s] ranks… Al-Qaeda’s external leadership still holds sway over parts of his group. Rising ISIS activity has led the US to halt plans to withdraw more troops from eastern Syria … These developments have also strengthened Israeli demands to keep US control over al-Tanf military base and maintain a presence in eastern Syria, both to block Iran and its allies from exploiting security gaps and to prevent Ankara from stepping in before Israel is ready to act on its own. Cooper also asked al-Sharaa to allocate a secure zone in Damascus for American diplomats, military officers, and intelligence staff working in the capital. The US reportedly selected Mezzeh Air Base for this purpose. Western diplomats call al-Sharaa the “Governor of Damascus” to highlight his narrow control over the capital. Security experts say his actual authority is even weaker, making Western protection essential against potential terrorist attacks.

A Kurdish Autonomous Statelet in NE Syria? (Firas al-Shoufi, Al-Akhbar):

The eastern Syria chessboard is changing fast. De facto President al-Sharaa’s bid to assert control over Kurdish-held sectors of Aleppo triggered US intervention … and deepened the crisis facing a transitional government still clinging to the idea of central authority … According to informed sources cited by Sky News, Mazloum Abdi is now demanding a Kurdish autonomy framework similar to that of Iraqi Kurdistan [– a] position [that] aligns with current US military thinking. After years of arming and training the SDF, the Pentagon now openly favors decentralization … al-Sharaa continues to pressure the SDF with military posturing and threats, relying on sanctioned Turkish-backed militias such as the Hamzat and Amshat brigades. The strategy has largely backfired, strengthening the SDF’s internal cohesion and enabling it to expand ties with Druze, Alawite, and select Sunni opposition figures … Ankara so far seems reluctant to offer full military backing to al-Sharaa, wary of jeopardizing its truce with the PKK or paving the way for an Israeli intervention against anti-SDF offensives. In this uncertainty, Israel has quietly benefited from the turmoil.

Russia’s Strategic Consolidation in Syria (Al-Akhbar):

The visit of Al-Sharaa to Moscow had a positive impact on Putin and Russian officials. Russia, which seeks to ensure the continued presence of its forces in the Tartus and Hmeimim bases and to restore its influence in Syria succeeded in reaching an understanding with al-Sharaa that guarantees the preservation of its strategic presence on the Syrian coast, the security of its transport routes to Africa, and the strengthening of its relations with the new Syrian administration … More than one Russian source familiar with the outcome of the visit believes that Russia considers [the outcome] to be an achievement in overcoming the past phase between Moscow and Damascus, and a Russian return to playing a role in the region, after the Europeans and Americans believed that the fall of the former regime had achieved their goal of distancing Russia from Syria … The sources add that “Russia obtained an official position from al-Sharaa regarding the presence of its bases in Syria. In return, al-Sharaa requested continued Russian support … as well as assistance in the form of oil, wheat, and weapons, and a role with Israel to halt its attacks on Syria” … Other Russian sources also said that “Al-Shara also aspires to obtain military aid, spare parts, and maintenance … [as] discussed during joint military meetings between the two countries’ defense ministries for the purpose of military cooperation, and things are progressing well.” The sources added that “security issues, the protection of minorities, and the preservation of Syrian territorial integrity were discussed … The issue of foreign fighters in Al-Shara’s forces requires some time to resolve, but there is a common understanding between the two sides” … Russia’s backing, meanwhile, will not come free. Having secured its bases and major concessions, Moscow will not provide weapons without compensation, especially given the risk of arms ending up with jihadist groups tied to Ukraine.

Israel fuels civil war in Gaza using its collaborator groups (Muhammad Shehadah, ECFR):

Israel’s Abu Shabab gang backfires in its face; Hamas infiltrated Israel’s proxy Abu Shabab gang & recruited double agents whose job is to provide intel & ambush the gang’s leaders. When they tried to attack, Israel intervened to protect its most precious collaborator, so the defectors engaged the intervening IDF troops. Preliminary reports indicate one or more Israeli soldiers killed or wounded. Israel is keeping the Abu Shabab gang well protected & deeply hidden inside the depopulated “Yellow Line” (58% of Gaza) that the IDF controls. Israel has been shooting & bombing anyone who tries to approach its proxy gangs or anyone that gets nearby the invisible “yellow line.” But the Israelis seem to have overlooked the scenario where Abu Shabab gang members can switch sides.

Israel has been using the ISIS-linked Abu Shabab gang for three missions: 1- Loot aid systematically to create famine while outsourcing blame. 2- Carrying out Black Ops (i.e. kidnapping, interrogating, & murdering Palestinians, collecting intelligence, going into areas that are too dangerous for the IDF). 3- Run a concentration camp in Rafah that Israel wanted to push Gaza’s population into (as announced by Defence Minister Israel Katz in July). Since the ceasefire, however, Israel has been using those proxy gangs for two more missions: 1- Destabilise Gaza & brew a civil war; carry out hit & run attacks, recruit clans, carry out assassinations 2- Run the only area where Israel is planning symbolic & limited “reconstruction” for PR purposes (in South East Rafah) while the rest of Gaza remains uninhabitable. The gangs, however, are now unraveling, especially that the IDF refused to allow gang members refuge inside Israel itself.

Tel Aviv hands Gaza’s warfront to death squads and collaborators, using the cover of a ceasefire to wage a proxy campaign against the Resistance (Robert Inlakesh, The Cradle):

Drawing on tactics refined in Syria, [Israel’s “collaborator militia”] death squads have been unleashed to assassinate resistance figures, sow chaos, and undermine what remains of the Hamas-led administration. Three proxy groups backed by Tel Aviv have been used to stir chaos on direct orders of the Israeli army … The armed clashes in northern Gaza have received the most attention in the media, with Israeli and a handful of Palestinian Authority (PA) aligned personalities attempting to sell the situation as a “civil war” … To counter the threat posed by these armed collaborators, Hamas formed two new specialized units. The first, Sahm (Arrow) Forces, is comprised of officers from the civil security services. The second, the Resistance Security Force (Amn al-Muqawamah), includes fighters from Hamas’s military wing, as well as those from the PFLP, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Fatah al-Intifada, and other factions. A senior security source in northern Gaza [said] Israel’s “goal is to create chaos, to carry out assassinations, allow for lawlessness, and to fight the resistance through its collaborators.” This account was reinforced in a KAN News interview, in which the leader of one collaborator militia confirmed that the Israeli army is providing his forces with security support and authorization to operate beyond the so-called Yellow Line. Roughly 54–58 percent of Gaza is still under the occupation army’s control… “Israel hoped to install these agents to run concentration camps for Palestinians, like they planned in Rafah with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation,” a senior Hamas official tells The Cradle. “But our people can see through all of these conspiracies.” While Tel Aviv pretends its military campaign is on pause, the facts on the ground reveal otherwise. Israel has outsourced the next phase of its war to collaborators, criminals, and extremists – executing its war objectives through mercenaries while claiming plausible deniability.

Kushner’s threat “changed everything”:

The issue of senior Palestinian prisoners and those serving long or life sentences became the most contentious issue in the final hours before the Gaza ceasefire was reached. As mediators sought compromises, a sudden US intervention “changed everything,” as one negotiator put it. Kushner reportedly warned: “Accept the deal as is, or face a new war with full US backing that would cross all red lines in Gaza”.

Can Fateh’s elderly leadership and the Palestinian National Movement survive Generation Z — and survive Hamas? (Daoud Kuttab, Al-Araby al-Jadeed):

President Abbas has pledged a series of reforms, including holding general presidential and parliamentary elections one year after the ceasefire agreement in Gaza comes into effect — in October 2026, if the president does not retract his pledge. It is not known whether Hamas will participate in the upcoming elections [as Abbas’] pledge included a condition requiring those participating in the elections adhere to international commitments signed by the PLO, including recognition of the State of Israel … However, the possibility of [Hamas’] absence, along with that of other hardline factions, does not necessarily mean that the Palestinian national movement and the PLO factions will easily win the upcoming elections … The Palestinian national movement, led by its elderly members, will be unable to compete with the young leaders … hence, Fatah and its Central Committee have begun taking small steps to try to restore unity to the divided movement. This has been achieved by reinstating Central Committee member Nasser al-Qudwa to his previous position, from which he was dismissed [in] 2021 … There also appears to be movement toward combating corruption … [Nevertheless] the young, digitally connected Palestinian society will have a significant say in the event of elections. As we have seen in Morocco, “Generation Z,” has aspirations (and visions) that oppose traditional political currents that have dominated Palestinian politics for decades … The major challenge is to move quickly, bring in new blood, and officially declare that leaders currently imprisoned are part of the future leadership of the Palestinian people. Without this, the Palestinian national movement and the PLO factions will have no chance of success, should elections indeed be held in a year’s time.

America rushing its regional gains for Normalization; Ironically Israel is in no rush to normalize (Al-Akhbar):

American talk increased about the imminent normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel … the behavior of the Saudi media confirms that this path is underway, and that it is simply a matter of the appropriate timing for announcing the move. Washington and Tel Aviv hope this will serve as a catalyst for a series of Arab and Islamic normalization processes, which will consolidate American and Israeli hegemony over the Middle East … There is a race between the availability of the necessary conditions for normalization and the rapid changes in the region, which the Kingdom believes require it to put its affairs in order. This explains what the Financial Times reported a week ago about Saudi-American negotiations to reach a bilateral defense agreement, which Riyadh considers an insurance policy for the regime and hopes will be signed when Crown Prince MbS visits Washington next month … The bilateral defence agreement, if signed, could include US guarantees to defend the Kingdom … The coincidence of US statements and leaks regarding normalization and the defense agreement suggests a connection between the two issues, given that the US previously made that agreement conditional on Saudi normalization with Israel … But the most prominent indicator comes from Gaza, where American support for the ceasefire … appears linked to the broader concept within which Trump framed the agreement …

However, for the Americans, Saudi normalization is not solely Saudi; the American goal is for it to be a prelude to the normalization of countries that are, or were, directly or indirectly involved in military conflicts with Israel and that have occupied territories. If this scenario materializes, these countries would, at best, be … demilitarized. This path, in particular, enjoys clear Saudi support in Syria and Lebanon, and is intended to end, once and for all, armed struggle as a means of liberating the land … Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states believe that the dangers surrounding them, or the threats emanating from within, cannot be postponed, and require stronger American security guarantees than those currently in place. The telling irony here, however, is that the only country in no rush to normalize is Israel, which believes that a whole range of options have opened up to it as a result of the developments of the past two years, most notably tearing apart all the countries in the region and returning them to an era of tribal and sectarian conflict, and completely emptying lands it seeks to control of their indigenous populations.